In the Amazon forests, few animals are as dangerous to humans as malaria—carrying mosquitoes.
In the Western Hemisphere, 90% of all malaria cases occur in the Amazon, but the disease is spreading unevenly in the tropical region.
While the incidence of malaria has decreased in the Brazilian Amazon, it is steadily increasing in the Peruvian Amazon.
Over the past 5 years, Peru has averaged second place in South America. Despite measures such as mesh beds and indoor sprays, there is still an urgent question of where to direct resources before malaria outbreaks and its rapid spread.
Now scientists are trying to solve this problem with the help of NASA satellites.
The aim of the project is to understand how malaria is transmitted in a tropical environment in the Amazon.
The risk of malaria is associated with certain environmental conditions that can be detected by satellites.
By understanding what environmental conditions to look for, you can learn how malaria is spreading in the Amazon.
Malaria is caused by some parasites belonging to the genus Plasmodium.
These parasites are transmitted to humans by blood-sucking mosquitoes.
There are approximately 40 species of malaria—carrying mosquitoes in the world, but in the Amazon it is mainly the Anopheles darlingi species.
The key to the study is to use satellites to identify the places where Anopheles darlingi mosquitoes breed.
The project uses a model called the "earth data assimilation system."
It receives information about precipitation, temperature, and vegetation cover from NASA satellites.
This gives scientists information about the likely breeding grounds of mosquitoes.
Precipitation is necessary for mosquitoes, because as a result of precipitation, mosquito breeding grounds are formed - puddles and small ponds.
Precipitation also affects soil moisture.
And this is important for vegetation.
Humidity conditions near the surface where mosquitoes breed and live are also changing.
In addition, precipitation eventually "feeds" rivers, and more river runoff will mean more places for mosquitoes to breed along the shores.
There are clear patterns of malaria development throughout the year, but these patterns are contradictory.
Both seasonal events and global effects leading to climate change (for example, the ocean current of El Nino) can affect mosquito breeding grounds.
Another factor that NASA satellites can detect is changes in terrain.
Deforestation is the most important change that worries scientists in the context of malaria control.
In Peru, forests are being reduced during logging, mining, and to free up land for agriculture.
Studies have shown that reducing the area of forests in this region increases the number of malaria—carrying mosquitoes.
The changes affect not only mosquitoes, but also humans, and this is a key component in this study.
By implementing the project, scientists realized how important it is to consider the movement of people when we talk about the risk of malaria.
People work in agriculture, logging and mining, and the number of people in this region is growing.
Where the paths of humans and malaria mosquitoes intersect, we get a high risk of infection.
Identifying human infection sites is the essence of predicting the development of malaria.
In Peru, the number of malaria cases is measured in health facilities.
But this does not always happen in places with serious malaria outbreaks.
People are not necessarily diagnosed where they become infected with malaria.
They can get infected where they work, and this place can be 150 kilometers away.
The study takes this factor into account and includes models based on seasonal employment data and estimates of people's movements.
The study predicts that malaria outbreaks will occur 12 weeks ahead of time.
This forecast will help the country efficiently send resources to specific regions.
Although the project is focused on malaria, scientists say it can be adapted to study other diseases such as Zika and leishmaniasis.
Precipitation and other environmental conditions are key factors in the spread of diseases.
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